3 takeaways for policymakers from the IPCC AR6 synthesis report

The IPCC is considered the most authoritative source on climate change. For more than 30 years, the IPCC has published comprehensive assessments of climate change prepared by global teams of scientists that have informed international climate negotiations and national strategies and raised public awareness.

The Sixth Assessment Report cycle, which began in 2017, actually includes a package of eight reports penned over the past five years that were designed to incorporate the latest technological, economic, and social developments that influence the response to climate change. The timing of the AR6 Synthesis Report was coordinated with the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change’s 2023 Global Stocktake – the first time the global response to climate change will be assessed. The AR6 Synthesis Report is a critical input to Global Stocktake deliberations, which will culminate at COP28 in the UAE later this year.

So what are the key takeaways of AR6 for policymakers as the first Global Stocktake approaches?

In its Summary for Policymakers, the AR6 puts it plainly: “There is a rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all (very high confidence).” That’s because global warming beyond 1.5°C increases the likelihood of irreversible impacts, such as loss of critical ecosystems including forests and coral reefs. Warming beyond 1.5°C would also accelerate the melting of the Greenland and West Antarctica ice sheets, drastically raising sea levels and forcing Small Island State populations and coastal communities to relocate and have to reckon with the loss of their homes, livelihoods, and culture. With every additional increment of warming, extreme climate and weather events are likely to grow more frequent and intense, exacerbating food and water insecurity and increasing the potential for conflict.

The prospect of these “compounding and cascading risks,” as the IPCC calls them, should be every policymaker’s nightmare. And yet, with the policies implemented today, the world is on track to reach 3.2°C of warming by 2100. In modeled pathways to 1.5°C, global emissions peak in the 2020s. The only way to stabilize the climate and not exceed 1.5°C of warming is to achieve deep emissions reductions in this decade.

Climate mitigation and adaptation solutions are available today - many at a low cost - and can be rapidly deployed to accelerate sustainable development. The AR6 considers the synergies of various climate adaptation solutions with climate mitigation to demonstrate the need for a more integrated view of climate and sustainable development options. For example, adaptation measures such as agroforestry to improve soil quality, increase vegetation, or shelter crops from climate hazards also contribute to climate mitigation by storing and sequestering carbon. Agroforestry can also improve food security and protect livelihoods, and is globally applicable. Other interventions such as green infrastructure with ecosystem services (e.g. water purification, biodiversity protection, air quality) can also contribute to climate mitigation, but their implementation may depend on economic, institutional, and technological factors or other dimensions of feasibility.

With the right policies and partners specific to local contexts, climate solutions that integrate mitigation, adaptation, and protection of vital nature can be prioritized to achieve climate and sustainable development goals. Climate intelligence (CI) offers valuable, decision-useful insights into climate-related risks and opportunities that can facilitate the collaboration that successful climate action requires. CI can also help policymakers to cultivate policy support from their constituents, to build up climate literacy and capacity, and to identify and partner with relevant local communities to implement solutions.

Current global climate finance flows are drastically insufficient to meet mitigation and adaptation targets. Near-term action is necessary to keep 1.5°C or even 2.0°C within reach, and this requires significant, up-front investments in adaptation and mitigation. Annual global climate finance flows stand at USD630 billion–far short of the estimated USD3-6 trillion needed annually to meet the temperature and adaptation goals of the Paris Agreement. Moreover, a small fraction of current financial flows are going to emerging markets and developing countries that need climate investments most. By 2030, climate finance to developing countries must increase between four and eightfold to achieve climate targets.

Governments of developed countries have an obligation to support developing countries to transition to low-carbon, resilient economies. So far, they have failed to mobilize USD100 billion of climate finance for developing countries annually as stipulated in the Paris agreement. At the same time, governments in emerging markets and developing countries can create policy enabling environments for global finance. This includes aligning public investments with low-carbon economic growth, including technology innovation, and coordinating policies at national and subnational levels to signal clear and stable policy commitment. Climate disclosure policies can simultaneously enable financial actors–from global investors to central banks and financial regulators–to better price climate risks, which also facilitates the redirection of capital toward sustainable investments.

The AR6 reinforces how consequential the actions in this decade are to realizing global climate goals. Country targets must be more ambitious, and deep emissions reductions cannot wait if global leaders want to keep 1.5°C within reach. At the same time, investments in climate adaptation must be equally prioritized to protect people and critical infrastructure from the physical risks to be expected based on cumulative emissions thus far.

These investments become all the more important if global leaders continue to fall short of warming targets. CI offers governments, financial markets, industries, and communities insight into mitigation and adaptation risk synergies to support targeted climate solutions at speed and scale. Three years into this critical decade, with the latest and clearest climate science in hand, the Global Stocktake at COP28 this year must be the impetus for bolder action from policymakers in partnership with global finance and civil society.

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